Mr. C. D. Tam
Executive Vice President & President, Asia Pacific
Motorola Inc.
With the proliferation of the Internet and the international media focus on technology in the 21st century... I think that expectations have been well established how this technology will change the way that we will live and work in the early part of the 21st century.
The challenge now is to meet these expectations by bridging people's dreams with the promises of technology.
I want to touch on four fundamental factors in the next few years that will be building those bridges for the future.
However, the technologies that I'll be highlighting will be so fundamental and so pervasive to our future, that they'll become an integral part of how we do business and live our lives.
The first factor is the convergence of the world of computer and internet...with the world of telecommunications...and within telecommunications...the convergence of the wired and wireless world.
At the end of 1998...the world had about a billion wireline voice users.
There were also about 200 million wired Internet users...all of which used Personal Computers for access.
There were also 300 million users of wireless cell phones used for voice communications.
Over the next three to four years, wired voice users are estimated to remain at about a billion.
During that same period...both the Internet and wireless users will grow to more than a billion each.
But the real significance is the big overlap with Wireless and Internet users.
This overlap represents the "next wave" in the Internet revolution...those who will be accessing the wireless Internet will their Cell phones and other portable communications devices.
The Internet will no longer be PC based as we move forward in the convergence of IT and telecommunications.
This point is particularly important in Asia where the growth of cellular subscribers has outstripped the growth of personal computers.
Japan and China are the world's second and third largest cellular subscriber markets behind the United States.
Although wireless Internet will be particularly huge in Asia...accessing the Web-without-Wires will be a worldwide phenomena.
Annual wireless handset sales will exceed 600 million by 2004. Thus, the accumulated subscribers would be well over 1 billion.
This compares to projected sales of less than 200 million PC's per year.
But there's a problem. Talking about the accessing the Internet with a cell phone is one thing. Being able to do it in a format that's tailored for use and display on cell phones is quite another.
The solution is a global standard called Wireless Application Protocol...or WAP. It's the format used by Motorola, Nokia, Ericcson and others.
From just a few WAP-enabled GSM tri-band that can be used in Asia, Europe, and most of the United States...including Hawaii.
So...we can access the Internet using our WAP-enabled phones. But now...there's another problem.
Using the existing digital technology...called 2G...or Second Generation, designed primarily for voice communications, downloading data takes a lot of time.
Most P.C.'s today download data 56 kilobytes per second. Using existing cellular infrastructure, your cell phone could only download at a rate of only several kilobits per second. It's far too slow.
With some incremental investment to existing digital cellular infrastructure...high speed packet data can be transmitted and received.
We call this 2.5G. We can communicate data from 64 kilobits per second up to 200 kilobits per second. Faster than the best 56K wired modem in the P.C.
Coming soon will be 3G...though it will require completely new investment infrastructure investment.
But in addition to voice and data...even video can be transmitting in 3G...and speed will be over 1 megabit per second.
Motorola is committed to bringing Wireless to the Internet.
Here's another opportunity. For over a billion Chinese and Japanese who write in their national language and don't have a keyboard...handwritten data entry is the solution for them to access the Wireless Internet.
With innovative products like this soon to be introduced Tai Chi...which is a combination Chinese language PDA and Cell phone...key boards aren't necessary.
And with China destined to become the largest cellular subscriber market in the world...the Tai chi is also positioned to become the Chinese wireless internet appliance of choice for m-Commerce.
With 2.5G and 3G cellular...an entirely new high growth segment of E-Commerce will open up. That's Mobile-Commerce...or M-Commerce. It's a natural extension of the Wireless Internet.
M-commerce requires fast access...fast data...fast transactions. 2.5G and 3G will deliver that.
While business-to-business will stay mostly wired...Business-to-consumer and consumer-to-business will be going wireless.
Consumers want the freedom and convenience of Internet-on-the-Go.
Think of the possibilities...
Now I know you diehard fans of PC's and wired networks may be unhappy hearing about all of the advantages of cell phones and Tai Chi and the Wireless Internet...but don't despair...for you...we've got Broadband!
I mentioned that modems in PCs transmit data information at 56 kilobits per second over phone lines.
The new fiber optic technology of Broadband can pack up to 6.4 trillion bits per second down each fiber. And cable is being bundled with between 100 to 150 fibers. This provides almost infinite bandwidth.
Through merging multimedia, data and voice...Broadband will transform our living rooms into a movie theater, a shopping mall and a business center. All in a single system.
The Broadband Home
In our homes today, analog cable systems provide us with 80 TV channels and pay-for view movies.
Broadband Communications will bring us 500 channels...theatre quality video-on-demand...Internet access...interactive games and services...and telephony.
Our strong belief in the future of Broadband was the reason for Motorola's acquisition of General Instrument, a world leader in cable technology.
Bridging People's Dreams with Technology's Promises
We have the capabilities to enable us to bridge People's Dreams wit Technology's Promises.
The real issue in our of the part of the world is how to use the bridge...among the complex social, cultural, economic and political environments which, at the same time, bind and separate our nations.
To enable our developing economies to leap frog generations of technology...we need to embrace global standards...And minimize regulations and legislation on access, content and technologies.
These collaborative actions will be necessary to facilitate the development and growth of E-commerce in the region.
I know that bridging dreams with technology is a major priority for PBEC, APEC, the region's governments and telecommunications and IT businesses.
The third factor will be the emergence of a new telecom network architecture for both wired and wireless communication.
Let me draw a parallel without getting too technical.
In the early days of computing, there were mainframe computers. Heavily centralized and powerful. But few people could get to them.
With the coming of "Internet" ...all intelligence is distributed into the perimeters in the form of servers and many people have easy access.
This is why so many Dot.Com companies can come up...and regardless of size, they can create useful applications and programs...changing the way that business is done and how information flows. This created the New Economy.
In the telecommunications market, a similar phenomenon is about to take place.
In this industry, there are "central switches." Equally difficult to access...and it took a lot of effort to add new applications such as caller ID.
What if a similar phenomenon like Internet were to happen and the intelligence of the telecom network can be distributed to the perimeters...easy to access...and enables many people to write new application software?
This new Internet-lie architecture will transform wire and wireless communications.
Motorola and Cisco Systems are working on this. We call it Aspira. No doubt there would be similar companies working along similar concept.
You've seen the impact of Dot.Com companies. With Aspira...you would the COM in dot.com being even bigger. Another "new wave" will be coming...
The fourth development is the application of embedded semiconductors at the heart of communications devices, appliances, cars and networks...and virtually everything else.
These embedded systems on a chip function like Digital DNA...they'll provide connectivity and the ability of smart devices to "think and link" which will enable them to talk to one another...and to us.
Within the next five years, 9.4 billion embedded semiconductors will be sold annually as the "Heart of Smart."
It's clear that the technologies of the early 21st Century can help bridge the digital divide. They can deliver on the promise of the potential of enriched lives, nations and economies.