PACIFIC BASIN ECONOMIC COUNCIL
MAIN PAGE | CLIPS | 1999 | IN THE 90'S

In the '90s, America's interest has shifted to the Pacific Gannett May 18, 1996 WASHINGTON -- Once upon a time in the 1980s, holding a conference on "The New Europe" or "Whither the Soviet Union?" was a great way to attract a gaggle of Washington talkers, thinkers and power brokers. Put together a few Germans, some French and a squad of British to discuss NATO, the ecu, nuclear warhead throw-weight or the future of the Maastricht Treaty and you had the makings of an overflow luncheon crowd. To this Atlantic-oriented capital, the Pacific was a huge ocean for vacationers and political specialists, and Asia a land mass chockablock with struggling people, troubled states and cheap labor. That's changing quickly in the '90s. Next week, speeches by President Clinton, Defense Secretary William Perry, Malaysia Prime Minister Muhamad Mahathir and Peru's President Alberto Fujimori are drawing cards for annual meetings of the Pacific Basin Economic Council. The PBEC's speakers' list is a who's who of political figures and captains of industry from both sides of the Pacific. Spurred by American business, Washington has developed a real yen for Asia as it modernizes at an unheard-of pace. "People are looking at the figures," said Charles William Maynes, editor of Foreign Policy magazine, "and they see that the world' s motor of growth is now in Asia. They want to hook their caboose to it. "By and large, the foreign policy establishment is still Eurocentric, but that is changing, perhaps not rapidly enough. News of 10 percent-plus annual economic growth rates, poverty levels dropping from 400 million to 180 million -- all without the costly welfare states or social security systems of the West -- has caught the American eye and attracted the American investor. Overall, Asia's economies -- excluding Japan's -- expanded by 8.7 percent in 1995. China's has exploded with an increase of 57 percent over the past four years. Those numbers come from the annual "Vital Signs" report issued this week by the Worldwatch Institute. "Thailand in the next century will probably be more important than France or Germany," said Maynes. "Jakarta is more dynamic than almost any American city. These things are just beginning to sink in over here." As former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said last week in Prague, "We are seeing a fundamental shift of economic power -- which will certainly have political consequences -- away from the West to Asia and the Pacific Rim." Some of the former economic backwaters of Asia are simply skipping over the 20th century and going directly to the 21st, going from no telephones at all to wireless models, from mud-rut roads to high-tech airports. In his best-selling book "Megatrends Asia," John Naisbitt writes: "What is happening in Asia is by far the most important development in the world today. Nothing else comes close -- not only for Asians but for the entire planet. The modernization of Asia will forever reshape the world as we move toward the next millennium." Clinton is likely, at Monday's session, to spell out the long-awaited details of his administration's stance on China trade for the year 1996-97. PBEC sessions will discuss Asian values, the Asian auto industry, food production and distribution problems in the Pacific, and 21st century security in the region. Backed by 1,200 businesses in 19 Pacific Rim economies, PBEC has become a powerhouse operation in Washington. Largely that's because APEC -- the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Group of political leaders -- has proven itself to be an amorphous band that finds it difficult to implement good ideas. The region's free-market economies of tigers and dragons have matured greatly in the past 20 years. But many of its democracies are still toddling around in infants' shoes. Some are finding it hard to get their balance. As a result, APEC has backed free trade for Asia by the year 2020, but it lacks political mechanisms -- mostly because of the enormous strength and influence of China -- to initiate and enforce it. How to get beyond the rhetoric of Asia free trade is the main subject of the PBEC meetings, and Clinton will address the topic Monday. What Clinton says will be important because he skipped last December's APEC meetings in Osaka, Japan, citing the budget deadlock and government shutdown in Washington.