Energy Problems in the Twenty-First Century and the Wisdom of Humankind
Mr. Teruaki Masumoto
Managing Director
Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc.
I cannot overemphasize how appropriate the theme of this PBEC Conference "Energy Issues in the New Millennium" is in setting the framework for the topic of energy problems in the twenty-first century. Undertakings from a perspective completely different from that of the past 100 years, let alone the past millennium, will be necessary. This is likely to be an issue not simply of energy problems, but one of the very existence of humankind and the fate of the earth.
As we approach the start of the twenty-first century next year, all the types of energy ever used at this very moment by the world's six billion people. In the desert and the jungle, the droppings of domesticated animals are being used as fuel, and people are using trees for firewood. Sun-dried bricks are also made and used for building houses. Meanwhile, areas deep within the earth and the deep sea bed including areas that were once thought to be exhausted have become active again producing oil and natural gas as a result of dramatic advances in prospecting and drilling technologies. We are also generating electricity using nuclear power reactors and solar cells constructed with industrial technologies. Wind power has also been revived and is generating electricity using advanced technologies unimaginable in the era of windmills grinding flour. We are now using coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity lavishly as if we live in a completely different world from that of a few decades ago, when we had concerns about the reserve volumes. At the same time, there are more than a billion people who do not enjoy the benefits of natural gas or electricity supply. These circumstances and issues concerning energy were raised by Chancellor Brandt of Germany about 20 years ago as one example of North-South problem.
As is widely known, today's tremendous energy consumption was triggered by the industrial revolution and the development of large-scale oil fields in the twentieth century. This tendency towards huge consumption was established only in the last 100 years or so. This tremendous energy consumption has brought about abundance, comfort, and convenience previously unknown to humankind. Downside of this has been increases in emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, and there are now concerns that this may lead to global warming. In the twenty-first century, even as we enjoy the full benefits of this high energy consumption, we must also tackle its other aspect-global environmental problems such as global warming. There are, of course, divergent opinions concerning global environmental problems. I personally believe that what is important now is "to accept with modesty what we know and what we don't know." In my opinion, what is necessary is to start taking action based on our current knowledge before it's too late. Like issues concerning food and water, energy issues are caused by an increasing global population, which will approach 10 billion in the twenty-first century, and by unbounded materialism. They are serious and large scale problems. This is the problem of approaching ever closer to the limits of global resources reserves and the natural environment.
Thinking on and approaches to undertakings regarding global warming differ in developed countries and developing countries, in the countries of Europe, in America, and in Japan. There are a variety of opinions concerning the direction of actions specified at the COP3 conference held in Kyoto, Japan's ancient capital, at the end of 1997. To date, thinking is quite divided. However, upon reflection, this is the first time in history that this many countries and territories have gathered at a single place and set aside their national, ethnic, and religious differences to address a single issue, and I believe this makes it extremely noteworthy. It is only to be expected that there are differences of opinions and disagreements. This gathering concerning global environmental issues brings with it a feeling of a united front that defense mission in which all players great and small can both embrace and participate.
During the twenty-first century, the global population will increase by a further 2 or 3 billion persons. One center of population and economic growth will be Asia, most notably in China, which has a population in excess of 1.2 billion, and India, whose population is approaching 1 billion. This also means that energy consumption in Asia will increase rapidly. Africa and South American are also in a similar situation. Marthus principle is still being debated. I contend population's increase is a problem that needs to be reconed with. However, we must not disagree with the desire of these regions to increase energy consumption nor should we make specific demands. These are the types of conduct we ourselves engaged in earlier.
In the twenty-first century, however, there is no doubt that further increases in energy consumption will lead to problems that affect all of mankind.
A general survey of the energy situation in the twenty-first century makes it apparent that twentieth-century type responses such as increasing supply volumes will not be suitable as energy measures in the new century.
The world has experienced two oil crises-in 1973 and 1984. We used those experiences to develop substitute energy sources including coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Although the levels of energy consumption efficiency differ greatly in the United States and Japan, both countries were able to achieve great increases in efficiency in each stages which were primary energy conversion, transmission, and consumption. During the period until the present, the efficiency of energy used in manufacturing plants, automobiles, office buildings, houses and of electrical devices has increased dramatically. Increases of approximately 30% have been achieved in the U.S., 25% in Japan, and 25% in the OECD overall. As a result of these increases, the effects of energy conservation have been the same as an equivalent increase in supply.
With increased attention being paid to global environmental issues recently, a variety of proposals and attempts are being made, particularly in the areas of achieving zero-emission industry links for industrial waste and creating communities that establish resource recycling systems. These efforts are along the same lines as higher energy use efficiency, and herein lies a major clue with conservation we can augment supply.
It is not enough for us to respond to energy problems of the twenty-first century simply by increasing energy supplies to meet demand. We must make further advances in efficient energy use at each stage from primary energy conversion to transmission, and consumption, and we must attempt to transfer high-efficiency technologies to developing countries and regions and promote their widespread application.
What we must strive to achieve in the twenty-first century is a maximization of energy efficiency in all fields including industrial formation and urban and residential development. This represents a response to global environmental problems as well.
We must work together with all involved parties such as energy suppliers, machinery and system builders, national and local government agencies involved in urban development, and consumers of energy in order to realize this end.
I am confident that it is such a joint effort that is being demanded of us in resolving the energy issues of the twenty-first century.